A new easy-to-use guide will help public bodies to think and plan better for the long-term, by keeping a clear vision and taking future trends into account.

The Three Horizons Toolkit has been developed by Public Health Wales and the Future Generations Commissioner’s Office to help public bodies avoid making decisions that don’t stand the test of time. It is based on a model developed by Bill Sharpe and the International Futures Forum. 

The toolkit can help anyone who is involved in making decisions that need to consider the future, and future generations, including public bodies with duties under the Well-being of Future Generations Act.

Dr Louisa Petchey, Senior Policy Officer at Public Health Wales, said: “Human beings are not naturally good at thinking long-term, and our brains are hardwired to focus on short-term concerns or think that the future will be like the near past.  

“This new toolkit shares with public bodies in Wales a simple way we can make space for our brains to think longer term.  The model gives us a framework for thinking about where we are now, where we are trying to get to and what the best way of reaching that future vision is.

“By using this model, we can see a bit more clearly what ideas are really going to transform the way we do things now in order to create a better future and what ideas are just a new way of packaging up existing approaches that aren’t fit for purpose anymore – like the difference between the minidisc and the iPod when we think about our journey from the CD player to live-streaming digital music.”

The Three Horizons Toolkit has been developed following recommendations in the Futures for Wales report that Wales needs to do more to plan for long term challenges like climate change and automation.

The Three Horizons Toolkit